What would Le Pen’s foreign policy look like if he became president of France?

The debate that 15.6 million French people watched during the presidential debate between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen on Wednesday night did not reach the usual number of viewers and did not come up with anything new, as each candidate remained in his positions. , and the two candidates did not cross the boundaries of tact and politeness, except in some of the accusations he made, Macron to rival him.

Marine Le Pen, who achieved a historic percentage for her party in the first round, tried to maintain the image of the candidate closest to the concerns of the simple citizen who finds it difficult to ensure the demands of daily life , but Macron has in the position of the president filling his office, examining the techniques of his files, especially with regard to the economy And the numbers, and this is self-evident given its scientific composition. He is a graduate of the Higher School of Administration, which makes up most of the state’s cadres. He comes from the world of finance and business, and the Ministry of Economy, and he served as presidential adviser during the era of François. Hollande, not to mention five presidential years.

The discussion did not arouse the feelings of the French, as it was long and did not include sharp debates. Marine Le Pen stayed on defense and away from emotion and reaction. For the intervening three days, the main task remains of the two candidates who returned to the field the next day to persuade the indecisive and win the votes of supporters of Jean-Luc Melenchon on the far left, and those of the right Valérie Pecres.

The popular suburb of Saint-Denis, north of Paris, where the boycott rate was highest, was where Macron chose to visit the day after the debate. As Le Pen travels to the Saône region of the small town of Roa, she emphasizes her connection to the rural community.

According to opinion polls, “Ipsos Sopra”, Macron was shown to lead Le Pen by 13 points, 56.5 percent for Macron and 43.5 percent for Le Pen.

In dissecting the votes among Melenchon supporters, the head of the statistics institute “Ipsos Sopra” Brice Tantorre explains in an article for the newspaper “Le Monde” that supporters of the far-left candidate in 2017 more than half of their votes to Macron, while the percentage of those who gave their votes to Marine Le Pen remained 7 percent and 41 percent of votes.

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Today, the institute estimates that the abstinence rate will be around 28 percent, and the shares will be split as follows: 36 percent will vote for the president seeking a second term, and 19 percent will vote for Le Pen, while the percentage of abstentions will reach 45 percent. This is a huge percentage, and the percentage of those who say they like Macron among Melenchon fans is 9 percent.

Given that the presidency is of fundamental importance to the French, Macron remains in the eyes of a broad segment that qualified for the presidency, with 54 percent of Melenchon supporters, while this percentage does not exceed 23 percent for Le Pen.

Wednesday’s discussion was about internal files that revolved around purchasing power, tax cuts and limiting the rise in fuel and energy prices. National issues are the biggest concern of the citizen and determine the victory of the candidate.

The regional and international axes were about the European Union and the relationship between the German-French duo, which remains the main engine of the union, and about Russia and Africa. On these issues was this interview with political analysts Olivier Rocan and Emmanuel Dupuy.

France’s position in the European Union

Political analyst Olivier Rocan believes that what Le Pen announces about France’s position in the European Union, changing its position and opening up more to relations with Poland and Hungary, and not just regarding immigration policy, “will be a matter that “Many bear the risks. The level of integration with Germany will meet with great resistance. It requires a complex and difficult program, difficult to assess in terms of implementation and remains unclear.”

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Regarding the principle of national sovereignty, he says: “This slogan forms his identity and political imprint, and it remains the mark of his own party and it can not be otherwise, and it has not changed in any day, although the political thing brings change, but it has not changed. ”

And he added: “What Macron targeted during the debate, even though he seemed arrogant, is his defiance of her to reveal the extent of her presidential ability, and he emphasized this point to cast doubt on voters’ minds about her ability to sow. to run a presidential rudder. ” And he adds: “If Le Pen wins, we will see a period of uncertainty at the level of international relations, at European level, and relations with both Italy and Spain, as well as the relationship with the United States led by Joe Pray, and there will be doubts about credibility and governance, and many guarantees will be required of us. ” .

The matter will not be as easy as thought on issues related to international treaties, and respect for treaties dominates the law. All this remains within the framework of the Declaration and Le Pen’s program will face obstacles and with power relations at international level clash.

Thus, it can be said that the final word remains in the election campaigns for local challenges. In most presidential campaigns, the debate and controversy revolve around internal national issues, although international issues have come to an advanced position in this debate.

NATO

In turn, political analyst Emmanuel Dupuy believes that the main points related to international relations are the issue of NATO, as it requires the withdrawal of France from the military administration of the alliance.

Dupuy says: “With regard to her rhetoric and her position on the European Union, it has not changed, although it has adapted its sharp tone. The failure to comply with the principles and treaties that form the basic principles of European construction, such as debt sharing, and the basic principles of foreign policy, which it would place in the ranks of the European countries that preferred the extreme right, such as Hungary and Poland, thus influencing France’s role in the world and putting it on the sidelines of the alliances that unite Europe “.

Regarding the relationship with Russia, Dupuy believes that Le Pen’s commitment to Russia is not limited to the $ 9 million loan she borrowed from a bank near Vladimir Putin in 2015. Le Pen took advantage of Macron’s criticism of her, saying: “When the French banks refused to give me the loan, I had to go overseas. Our party is poor.”

It is the only one, according to Dupuy, “that recognized the Crimean referendum, which Putin arranged after his annexation with Russia in 2014. Le Pen could have withdrawn or changed his mind, but she did not.”

The case therefore applies to the human rights treaty and relations with the United States, it is not enthusiastic about relations with Joe Biden, and it should be taken into account.

French-African Relations

The third axis in international relations dealt with Franco-African relations, as she expressed her doubts about the relations that Macron binds to some African countries, especially that these countries have not succeeded in bringing about political transformation, such as those through the army is run or that they have lost power, as in Burkina Faso and Mali, but in this context She offered no alternative or proposal, but her rhetoric remained shrouded in protectionism against immigration, according to Dupuy.

Le Pen stressed the ban on wearing the hijab in public places, but she softened her voice and left a margin to discuss this point. Dupuy says: “Le Pen’s speech on the issue of the hijab will have an impact on relations with Arab countries, although she has changed the intensity of her speech on wearing the veil. The veil, as it does so in public places “It will not be in our interests with countries with which we have important strategic relations, such as Morocco and Algeria.”

The picture, as it looks today, does not suggest that Marine Le Pen may have won the election, and whether the percentage she achieved will help her get a significant number of representatives in the National Assembly? On 8 seats, and in view of what she will achieve in the second round, she can count on 10 or 12 seats, as the legislative elections are held according to different ratios, and the extent of what she has achieved in the presidential elections has no effect on what her party in the legislative elections.

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