Division, annihilation and maneuvering … the Brotherhood in 2022 scenarios

Between the tearing of the Brotherhood’s head on two fronts and an internal battle over money and power, which led to security strikes and decisive court rulings, 2021 was a difficult year for the organization.

Crises and conflicts observed by the Brotherhood in 2021 put the organization on the path of disappearance and fading in the new year by the coordinates of a difficult reality that is apparently unable to reach a solution that heads the organization unite and restore the trust of the organization. the branches and bases.

Analysts and political experts in separate interviews with Al-Ain Al-Akhbar provided 3 scenarios for the Brotherhood in 2022, which are the continuation of fragmentation and division, or exposure to death and fading as an organization, or transformation into a current. , and the third proposal will be – if realized – the organization’s maneuver in an attempt to escape confrontation and reckoning.

But at the same time, these experts warned against the organization’s transformation into a “stream”, as it is a dangerous affair. Because it will be very difficult to face it.

The terrorist Brotherhood is living in a state of self-destruction as a result of the raging war that is going on in its “head” between the two camps of Turkey and Britain.

The Brotherhood has now divided in an unprecedented way into two competing fronts, each with a General Guide, a Shura Council and an official spokesperson, while neither party recognizes the other, within a crisis of legitimacy and mutual accusations of kidnapping the leadership.

The split of the Brotherhood, the most prominent manifestations of which arose in the installation of the Turkey Front under the leadership of the former secretary general of the group Mahmoud Hussein “Al-Mujamd” – according to decisions issued by the other side – Brotherhood leader Mustafa Tolba as a temporary general guide as a replacement for Ibrahim Munir, the acting guide, who was also isolated by a decision of the opposing front.

3 scenarios

Dr. Ahmed Al-Shorbagy, a political analyst and expert on the affairs of political Islam movements, believes that “with the continuation of the security strikes, the screws to the Brotherhood are being tightened by some Arab and regional governments and the continuation of Turks. pressure, and the end of the outstanding issues with Qatar, the future of the organization in the new year will not go beyond 3 scenarios.

Al-Shorbaji said the first scenario is the continuation of the state of fragmentation and division, while the second exposure is to a state of death and extinction as an organization, while the third scenario involves the transformation into a stream.

He added: “Switching to a stream would be far more dangerous than the idea of ​​the organization, and it would have serious consequences after we fought a war against the organization and made great sacrifices to the country.”

He explained, “When (the organization) changes into a trend, it will be difficult to hold it accountable, in addition to the fact that it is easy to identify the organization’s members and know the active forces with it, and its future agenda, abort it and strike against it, unlike the current. ”

He pointed out that Ibrahim Mounir was pushing hard in the direction of the group’s transformation of an organization within Egypt into a stream, while at the same time noting that “the organization’s main body remains and is not subject to a real battle, and its members are present in society, as its largest body in Egypt is outside prisons. “

Become a weakened body

In describing the reality of the Brotherhood in 2021, Al-Shorbagy said that “the organization has become a weakened body after several security attacks against it, and its exposure from an intellectual point of view, in addition to that, from an organizational point of view. from a point of view, it has had an impact. ”

And he added: “The ideological factor, which is the backbone of the organization and gives it and its members strength and stability, has also suffered severe blows.”

He added, “During previous years, the Brotherhood went through a period of spring that did not last long, then fall, and we can now say that we have begun the stage of the organization’s cold winter.”

Regarding the future of the Brotherhood’s branches at Arab and regional level, the expert said that “the organization takes the appropriate form for each country to work with”, as it is “like the snakes of the earth, their color according to the color of the land they inhabit. ”

He pointed out that the basic regulation of the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood stipulates that each organization within each country gets a name that differs from the idea of ​​the mother group, and that it is shaped according to the circumstances in which it is present. and move accordingly.

He also stressed that “the political failure of the Arab organization will continue and the situation will get worse.”

crises and deterioration

A forward-looking vision that did not differ in depth from what dr. Tarek Fahmy, professor of political science at the University of Cairo, does not see what it considers too early to say that the organization has disappeared, but he said the latter would testify. in 2022 several consecutive crises to complete the ongoing split vertically and horizontally.

Fahmy said: “The parent group will see more divisions in conjunction with the decline in the scene of the subgroups in the region.”

The Egyptian expert emphasized that “there are no specific mechanisms for the Brotherhood to deal with the current crisis, and the idea of ​​offering any new approaches to the group will continue to lack centralization,” noting that “the organization’s movements are now restricted to its media platforms without having a presence on the ground.”

As for “Fahmy,” “the group will remain in a reactionary position, and the idea of ​​confrontation or violence that followed and has not given up to this moment will not be abandoned.”

dark horizon

In another form of the organization’s suffering internationally, he said: “There is a crisis related to the official moves against the organization which will escalate in the new year as the group is subject to reviews taking place in Britain takes place after the ban on Hamas. “

He stressed that “it is not excluded that the Brotherhood’s files will be opened in Britain and Germany, which will affect the organization’s paths and future in the coming period, so we are facing a new reality that is taking shape. and new rules will be built upon it. ”

He concluded that the future of the organization “lies before open scenarios and multiple scenes, but not everyone is in the interest of the group and its future.”

In turn, Fahd Al-Shulaimi, director of the Middle East Center for Political and Strategic Consultations in Kuwait, believes that the Brotherhood’s political activity will show a significant decline in the new year, and their discourse will be conciliatory.

“The Brotherhood’s media discourse will decline, and the organization will work to reduce the severity of the attack on governments, including Egypt,” he said.

Al-Shulaimi pointed out that the Brotherhood had become aware of the gradual decline in American interest in the Middle East, and the lack of support as before from Congress or American liberal groups.

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