The economic embargo and financial collapse are one of the main instruments in the growing popular resentment against the ruling class.
The difficult labor facing Lebanon, the most prominent features of which appeared after the events of 17 October 2019, when the country entered a new and unprecedented phase that changed the political, social and economic landscape into a state that may be known was and what is expected of decision makers and authority.
There is no doubt that the huge gaps in the financial and political systems in Lebanon, and the external sponsorship of a large segment of the owners of money and power in it, have enabled several countries to enter and thereby infiltrate to set conditions and policies. whereby they control the political decision, and thus the possibility of leaving the dark tunnel that seems so far long.
Therefore, it was useless to talk about the resurgence of the current political class in the face of major collapses in key sectors of the system’s structure. Study collapses, and they are implemented with a specific time course based on the developments in the political scene in Lebanon, especially with regard to the resistance and its allies, for two main purposes; The first lies in weakening the resistance – by that we mean Hezbollah as a political component – by beating allies and influencing their popularity. Perhaps the most prominent of them is the Free Patriotic Movement, which is most affected by its relationship. with the party, as it is a key “Christian” ally that forms a great cover for the resistance and an influential depth in the social and political life in the country. Lebanon, while it is difficult to enter directly between the so-called National Alliance, Amal Movement and Hezbollah, this strong relationship is used to incite the political conflict between the two rival alliances. Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement.
The second case appears gradually and deliberately by transforming the Lebanese state with its political and financial system from a state that exists politically with the state of resistance, and is unable to influence its weapons, to a state that it houses and works through its institutions to besiege it and withdraw pretexts to keep weapons outside the framework of the military establishment.
The foregoing can be more clearly demonstrated by the parliamentary elections to be held in May next year. The United States and its tools are working to form new political forces, by supporting personalities and associations outside the consumed political framework, and exploiting the despair that has plagued a large segment of the Lebanese to form a front that able to obtain an acceptable number of votes, to be represented by a bloc in Parliament It empowered it to play the role of the weight-bearing egg to secure the parliamentary majority for the anti-resistance political group.
Therefore, the forthcoming parliamentary elections are considered a crucial stage in the modern history of Lebanon, on which a new building is being built that will allow the anti-resistance team to manage this hostility, through public institutions and the structure of public order. The great American effort can be summed up in an attempt to find a parliamentary bloc of traditional political parties, such as the Lebanese Forces, the Lebanese Phalanges, and others, in addition to the emerging bloc composed of a number of non-governmental organizations ( NGOs) and other figures outside the political team.
The first scenario assumes that the powers, parties and personalities supported primarily by the United States obtain the majority of votes in the next parliament, which somehow means the ability to exercise legislative authority by a majority of to control votes, and then the possibility of electing a president of the republic and forming a government outside the previously followed consensus and pact framework.
In this case, it is possible to infiltrate and adapt official administrations and public institutions to serve the encirclement of the resistance and its allies and fight it from within the state, not from outside, which means that the Lebanese political system , in its majority, becomes hostile in word and deed to the resistance, not in an imposed cohabitation situation.
What helps to continue this path is the developments that may occur in the file of the demarcation of the land and sea borders between Lebanon and the occupying entity, by withdrawing the pretext to maintain the resistance’s weapon because the reasons for its existence are absent, which will be. exploited by the other party, as the resistance committed itself to defending the land and waters that the state considers Lebanese to be Lebanese only.
This scenario, although not fully achieved according to opinion polls, paves the way, according to the US position, for the beginning to drive a wedge between the Lebanese state as a political system and administration, and especially Hezbollah and its allies at home, and it is inseparable from the attempt to sow discord between these components at any crossroads, to form more pressure.
The economic blockade and financial collapse are one of the main instruments in the increasingly popular resentment against the ruling class, which the Americans allegedly try to directly and indirectly blame Hezbollah on the basis of its alliances and its coverage of corruption.
This scene could lead to a major political unrest and the possibility of a direct clash. In May 2007, the government of former President Fouad Siniora tried to hire official state institutions to confront Hezbollah, leading to what is known as the events of May 7, which resulted in a new political agreement in Doha which is the principle of treaty in the formation of governments.
In the second scenario, Hezbollah and its allies may be able to maintain the parliamentary majority, which is seen as a blow to the entire project that established or exploited what Lebanon went through, with the aim of taking the storm of change against Hezbollah and its allies. direct, which means maintaining the old formula, with an evolution in conflict methods Political and clash.
With regard to the US project to be implemented in Lebanon, this issue is seen as an obstacle that will be eliminated recently or perhaps its consequences in the foreseeable future, which could lead to the development of the clash, and perhaps A US push for an Israeli aggression against Lebanon, under the pretext of beating Hezbollah and paralyzing its power, which will be accompanied by Great political support for the aggression by forces, personalities and parties hostile to Hezbollah, as opposed to with the atmosphere that prevailed during the July 2006 aggression.
No denial is given to the clear American attempt to endorse a non-marginal public opinion, which supports the path of normalization with the occupying entity, and honestly hostile to the resistance and its weapons, which can make the political and popular terrain suitable to a large-scale aggression.
If the first and second scenarios lead to a major conflict that can be armed internally or through Israeli aggression, then the option of temporarily replacing the term of the current parliament, and therefore the term of the presidency of the Republic, is a temporary solution. extended to matters of large settlements lapse or not, especially since President Michel Aoun He said earlier in a television interview that the possibility of accepting the extension of the presidential term if the House of Representatives wanted it? Is this an acceptable way out of the parties involved to build on the thing required?