The countdown to the election, which is less than 24 hours away from us, began to open the ballot box on the morning of Sunday, May 15, 2022. This election, which had many doubts in terms of its feasibility, has an accomplishment fact, waiting for the surprises in its results.
Al-Modon monitors the atmosphere of the last card of the election campaign in the three northern districts, in which two conflicts escalate: the first, the fate of the Sunni vote in the first and second districts. The second is what will lead to the struggle of the Christian powers in the third district, which marks the characteristics of the struggle over the presidential election. This while election money is circulating in an unprecedented manner in the three districts. Some estimates say that its pace will escalate tomorrow afternoon, especially in light of the fear of most Christian, Sunni and Alawite forces of the repercussions of poor participation, and the nature of the struggle facing new forces arising from civil society, entered.
The first North: “smugglers” and future veterans
8 lists compete in Akkar, and the struggle is centered between 3 political groups: the first is “National Moderation” and includes future veterans in a coalition that brings together MPs Walid Al-Baarini, Hadi Hobeish and Muhammad Suleiman (from Wadi Khaled) brought. . The second is Akkar First, supported by the Aounist movement and led by candidate Muhammad Yahya (from Wadi Khaled). The third is Akkar, backed by the Lebanese Forces Party. While the “Loyalty to Akkar” list supported by the Azm movement led by Najib Mikati is progressing very slowly, with his coordinator Haitham Ezzedine, especially in light of the talks about Mikati’s withdrawal from supporting his lists in Tripoli and Akkar, for financial and political reasons; Compared to 4 other regulations arising from civil society.
Akkar constituency share is 7 parliamentary seats. 3 Sunni seats, 2 Roman Orthodox seats, a Maronite seat and an upper seat. Estimates suggest that the election rate in Akkar will vary between 17,000 and 18,000 votes, taking into account that at least 100,000 voters in the governor’s may participate in the voting process.
Election money in Akkar takes precedence over any political discourse, in addition to the rise of the Syrian element in the border villages, in which politicians, influential people, illegal smugglers and stakeholders are active within Syria and with its regime.
A huge flood of election money is escalating today, Saturday, in Akkar, with the aim of buying votes. Most of the major political forces seek to win Sunni voters, especially those affiliated with the Future Movement. If the price of votes starts to rise to more than one million Syrian pounds per vote, according to Al-Modon’s data.
The Second North: The Sunni Voice and the Syrian Decision
Contrary to expectations, enthusiasm appeared in Tripoli, Minieh and Dinnieh, opening hours before the ballot box, while Al-Modon monitored the massive spread of candidates’ banners, and the escalation of their field movement, which made many promises in its bags hide. and election money. Some candidates also go on to inform voters in text messages about the need to vote for them.
Amid this scene, the current absentee is the Future Movement, which has officially withdrawn from the struggle, but its popular cadres and election keys are active on a large scale in influencing the elections and their results, on two levels: as required by personal interests by to support only candidates, and in the interest of the political movement in terms of support lists And another hit.
Also, election money in all its material and kinds of forms in Tripoli takes precedence over any other political speech of most of the traditional powers and some of the new emerging powers.
It seemed striking, according to our information, that the futurists in Tripoli were divided into 3 categories: a narrow and influential segment that fights the struggle of candidate Omar Harfouche with a pure investment logic in exchange for large sums of money. A second and broad segment supports the list of former MP Mustafa Alloush and will give him a high percentage of his preferred votes. And a third segment that Karim Muhammad Kabbara was able to attract are those who are independent and his father’s supporters in exchange for promises or services. He is the candidate on the list of “the people” who were left without any support from Mikati, which caused great embarrassment to his candidates in front of the voters.
In the second northern constituency, 11 lists compete for 11 seats divided as follows: 8 seats for Tripoli (5 Sunni seats, one Alawite seat, one Maronite seat and two Greek Orthodox seats), one seat for the Sunni sect , and two seats for Sunnis in al-Dinniyeh.
The real struggle, which was also evident hours before the opening of the ballot box, takes place between 4 political lists: the “People’s Will” list, which includes the coalition of MPs Faisal Karami, Jihad al-Samad, the Marada movement, and the Association of Islamic Projects, and the “Save the Nation” list, which includes the Brigade Alliance Ashraf Rifi and the Lebanese Forces Party, and the “Lebanon For Us” list includes the alliance of former MP Mustafa Alloush and the current Sami in Fatfat, and is backed by former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. And the shaky “for the people” list, which includes the alliance of Karim Mohamed Kabbara (the most privileged on the list) and the Azm movement.
What’s new in the second northern district, and according to private information to Al-Modon, the Arab Democratic Party in Jabal Mohsen has decided to grant the preferential vote by its supporters to Marada Movement candidate Rafli Diab on Faisal Karami’s list, in addition to Karami’s support, at Syrian incentive. This is also Hezbollah. He also decided to support Sunni candidate Muhammad Yahya on the list of the Free Patriotic Movement in Akkar, previously mentioned by Al-Modon in previous reports, about the Syrian role in Wadi Khaled and Jabal Mohsen.
This is due to the fact that Karami is trying to provide four amounts for his list, but if they decide to support the Alawi candidate on his list, Ahmed Traboulsi, then he will need about 5 amounts for his success. In order to prevent the upper voice from spreading, there are tendencies to cast the votes in Tripoli on both Karami and Diab.
At the same time, some civil society lists are advancing at a vague and slow pace to compete for a seat in this constituency, at the forefront of which are the “Rise Up for Sovereignty for Justice” lists led by Rami Feng, “Real Change” and includes Ihab Matar’s alliance with the Islamic Group, and the “Third Republic” led by Omar Harfouch.
The Third North: The Battle of Basil
The third north includes the districts of Bcharre, Zgharta, Koura and Batroun, in which 7 lists compete for 10 parliamentary seats, divided as follows: 3 seats for the Maronite community of Zgharta, two Maronite seats for Bcharre, 3 seats for the Greek Orthodox of Koura, and two Maronite seats for Batroun.
Attention is drawn to this constituency, which is experiencing a cautious calm on Saturday, but it is expected to be one of the constituencies witnessing the most intense political battles, as all the major Christian forces are competing in it, led by the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gibran Bassil, the Lebanese Forces Party, which is running for the Bcharre District, the Deputy Strida Geagea, the Marada Movement, led by Tony Suleiman Franjieh, the Phalange Party, which is the alliance of Michel Moawad and Majd Harb supported.
The competition revolves around the following four lists: the “Pulse of the Strong Republic” list led by MP Strida Geagea, the “We will not stay here” list led by Gibran Bassil, in which he is linked to a wing of the Sirian National Party by candidate Walid Al-Azar, the “Northern Confrontation” list, which includes an alliance Majd Boutros Harb, Michel Moawad, the Lebanese Phalange Party, and the “Unity of the North” list which includes the Marada movement and the Syrian Social Nationalist include Party in Salim Saadeh’s wing.
While the “Shamalna” list is ahead among 3 lists of civil society, it seeks to break even one seat. It is likely that you will succeed in this in the ball.
Some data speaks of anxiety dominating Batroun, in which Basil is fighting for his political existence, against what he always describes as the “war of abolition.” Bassil, like his several rivals and opponents, is aware that the 2022 battle differs radically from the 2018 election.
On the one hand, this time Bassil lost the support of his former friend, the leader of the Future Movement, Saad Hariri, when he was provided with Koura in particular with no less than 1,500 Sunni votes. On the other hand, there were many transformations in the Christian scene in this circle. Moawad severed his alliance with Basil, and the forces severed their alliance with the battalions that supported Moawad and Harb, Harb separated from the Marada movement, and the Syrian National Party split against itself, and consequently the votes of his constituents are scattered, while for the first time a political and bourgeois opposition voice has emerged in this circle, hiding His pens and boxes are many surprises.