There is a huge change in the global system and new powers will appear and others will decline, alliances will change, and the Middle East region is actually and de facto changing. We live and feel this change daily.
Let us first agree on what can no longer be denied, the world we knew before the “information technology” revolution is over. And it’s completely over.
The international relations established in that world were within its contexts, conditions and data, which are contexts, conditions and data that ended with the end of that world, which necessarily and logical hierarchy means the end of the effectiveness of the old “international relationship system”, and the dismantling of it to reinstall a new system that is in line with the new and current world.
Among the facts that also witnessed a change that in turn brought about a package of fundamental changes, the energy sources, which accompanied the information technology revolution.The world today is gradually shifting from dependence on oil to alternative, environmentally friendly and available energy sources, and the control of “gas” in its fields and exploration areas has caused earthquakes and aftershocks.In the world of international alliances and the relations of states between each other, and in the Middle East region, we have said before that it is disintegrating now, in a restructuring of the Eastern Mediterranean project. The Middle East has been in line with oil as a global energy source that controls the fate of nations and peoples, and today the available gas east The Mediterranean basin is the title of the strange enough. formed relationships that can only explain gas, and only alliances based on partnership and collaboration make it logical.
Share and collaborate? This is not an easy phrase in the eastern Mediterranean. The neighbors on that side of the long coast are never on good terms, and they carry a legacy of the crumbling world that they see as sacred and colossal of hatred, blood, wars and many rights that have not found decisive solutions.
But the “very abundant” gas under the sea does not know the virtue of patience and waiting. It is by nature a “gas” that will not disappear after too long.
The eastern Mediterranean, in which Turkey, Greece, Cyprus and Italy descend to the coast to Lebanon, Syria and Israel, to end the coastline at Gaza – the happiest, as expected, with the abundance of gas on its marine thresholds – then Egypt to Libya, and only God “and his righteous and unworthy servants of giant corporations” know where they can That the sea of gas ends under the Mediterranean.
International relations changing today are not a narrow idea limited to embassies and diplomatic exchanges, nor the scope of temperamental regional alliances or pragmatic interests. The change in international relations requires a reconsideration of all the foundations of the previous system, and this includes international laws governing maritime borders and the laws of the high seas. It is an essential necessity today that establishes the shape of the world tomorrow, and perhaps the shape of wars in it if the world does not act wisely now.
Is there a war coming?
It is difficult to get a definitive answer to this hard, legitimate question.
But we can participate, even spiritually, in the process of disintegration and synthesis, to understand the shape of the next path in the region and the world.
It is a new and completely different world in its own right, and an eastern Mediterranean region in which the conflict over the surrounding gasmere requires more cooperation and partnerships than wars and conflicts.
It therefore requires quick and deliberate concepts, and the understandings in the eastern Mediterranean are complicated by a heavy and intertwined historical legacy, which has always yielded extremist centers of power, all of which are religious or national fundamentalisms.
The concept means working with an enormous seismic force to change the collective mood throughout the region, and it simply means getting rid of – by dismantling or displacing – the opposing centers of right-wing power.
Let’s take a closer look at the current scene:
What are the stubborn right-wing forces in their “national or religious” extremism that reject any regional cooperation formula that is below the requirements of the next phase?
Iran and its “regional agent, Hezbollah” and all their scattered regional satellites across the eastern Mediterranean. And also the current right-wing government in Israel, which is an Israeli nationalist right-wing government that came after the government of religious-nationalist extremism led by Netanyahu.
Reading the current scene, which changes every day in succession, there is strong talk of “closed room” settlements in the nuclear deal with Iran, and Iran, trying with “past and desperate” success to clear away its internal popular rifts sting and the tension in his street suppressed by iron, fire and the holy, seeks to reach “desperate”. Also “to an agreement that removes the lid of it to boil in it, an agreement that opens the country to the world and a big cake for everyone in the process of” reconstructing “an exhausted country whose entire infrastructure is still belongs to the seventies of the last century, with a latent oil revolution and gas wealth from which a cubic meter can not be used.Without a final settlement, Iran will return to the international community. (Iran shares with Qatar a large gas lake in the Golf, cooperation is an absolute necessity to exploit it and invest in it).
Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy in the region, will lose the most if Tehran reaches settlement agreements that are in Iran’s sole interest, and it is not excluded that the Iranians will leave their historic “sectarian” ally to find a way around the lid. to lift from boiling in the pot.
According to the lectures of specialists, Hezbollah can continue for at least two years without Iran and with self-financing of “the party’s investments around the world”, but political support is the umbilical cord that feeds the party’s existence.
In the expected readings, the party is dismantled to turn into a political party within a new “political” system installed in Lebanon, a political party without hegemony after disarmament. The disarmament of Hezbollah would be hard and costly.
“Israel, represented by its right-wing government that refuses to climb off the tree, may face a deliberate war that shakes the tree and traps those who cling to its branches, even if necessary,” the tree , “as one European diplomat says.
The right-wing government in Israel can all precede it in the process of “regional aggravation,” and there are possible scenarios that Iran would be hit directly by Israel, and that would jeopardize the settlements of the nuclear deal, and drag Washington into a war. it does not want to because of the historical alliance with Israel.
The recent escalation of Israeli attacks against Iranian targets on Syrian territory has stopped Damascus airport from working, but what is there at Damascus airport to be hit? What could hurt Iran and Hezbollah in recent attacks?
Press reports speak of increasing assassinations within Iran targeting “quality” personalities, Israel’s threat to destroy the villages that house Hezbollah’s missile platforms, and the ongoing media mobilization efforts to hamper Iran’s nuclear deal, in addition to reports of the deployment of advanced systems in the UAE and Bahrain a few kilometers off the coast of Iran, then the visit of the head of the Iranian navy to the occupied Emirati island of Tunb, and his striking statements about an “Israeli presence” in neighboring countries and the threat of a strong reaction.
I will not be too pessimistic or melancholy to warn against an impending and destructive war, but all the facts lead to the need to change all previous comparisons, and to bring the Eastern Mediterranean together within a system of cooperation that can not live without settlements that satisfy everyone. , without exception, and regional development is the key to the doors of the next phase. Can you imagine how Gaza, “the poorest, most miserable and unjust in the world,” could become rich in gas, and how Egypt could benefit from illuminating the streets of Greece with a European ambition that would free Europe from Moscow’s control about energy.
And when can Lebanon end its negotiations, under the auspices of “resistant” leader Nabih Berri, to reach a settlement with Israel in joint gas fields, and can Israel investigate Mediterranean gas with its right-wing extremism in power, without a ” just “and fair” peace settlement for the Palestinians? This puts new options for solutions outside the ancient Middle East heritage fund on the table.
I do not know if there is a definite answer to the question: Will war break out? But the more realistic question: Is there a need for that war?