Until when can Johnson ignore the sharp Brexit dilemma?

Analysts at the Resolution Foundation expect British workers to be £ 470 ($ 578) poorer by the end of the decade in terms of their annual income. USA), as a result of “Brexit” (Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union).

The reaction of many people may be to dismiss this reading as merely a rise in a new set of fears. But in the end, it’s just another prediction, a model or an estimate that may one day turn out to be wrong.

However, the analysis is based on a growing amount of frightening data that has accumulated since the 2016 referendum (on Britain leaving the European bloc) and has finally been confirmed with the fact that we did leave the European Union 18 months ago.

This means we can begin to separate what we know about the impact of Brexit from what economists expect.

What we do know is that the Sterling fell sharply after the Leave vote, and did not regain his previous health levels. We also know that this fact makes the importation of goods and merchandise more expensive for the British. We also know that leaving the EU internal market has exacerbated the labor shortage problem, although the UK’s departure from the EU is not the only reason for this. Additional red tape, administrative procedures and other bureaucratic transactions have increased the cost of doing business with EU member states.

The most worrying aspect, however, is that investment growth came to a halt in 2016 so that it could no longer rise. It rose 1.7 percent each year before the vote, but has stagnated ever since, averaging 0.1 percent since then. This number may not seem like much, but it is likely to make a significant cumulative difference to the UK’s future prosperity.

The decline in the flow of money to companies, factories, offices and laboratories means the perpetuation of the chronic problem in this country, represented by a lack of investment and low productivity. Consequently, our ability to produce things efficiently will be less than it otherwise would have been. The areas of North East England (which is the poorest in Britain) are expected to be hit the hardest as a result of this reality.

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The high-wage, highly-skilled economy promised by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson requires investments that have yet to materialize. It is very clear that this problem is caused by the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, and it seems that it will continue for years to come. As is so often the case, businesses yearn for security, and if there is one thing that has underlined the government’s approach to Brexit, it is perpetual uncertainty.

On the other hand, there has been the recent controversial controversy over the “Northern Ireland Protocol” (which governs customs and immigration issues on the island’s border between Ireland, Britain, Northern Ireland and the European Union, but since its implementation disputes between London and Brussels because it disrupted trade between Great Britain and Ireland North), we are very far from “achieving British departure from the European Union”, and that Boris Johnson is ready for a continuous war with the European block to fight. The portrayal of Brussels as the source of Britain’s problems has helped him well to maintain his position, and he can therefore continue to do so. It seems that the long-term vulnerability of the British economic boom is not in fact a matter of concern for the UK’s political staff.

When a full assessment of the accuracy of the Resolution Foundation’s predictions can be made by 2030, the sitting prime minister will long be away from 10 Downing Street. Even if it turns out to be accurate, Johnson will not be there to be held accountable. .

To avoid further damage to UK household income, a strong argument is needed to build acceptable relationships with our nearest neighbor and the UK’s largest trading partner. An argument that Britons who voted to leave the European Union can convince can no longer be ironically portrayed as undermining the referendum.

It is noteworthy that the opposition “Labor” party led by Sir Keir Starmer has raised the issue so far, fearing that it would be in danger of losing some of its traditional voters forever. This argument could become easier to sell if data continues to prove the damage Brexit has done.

But for now, the vacuum is being filled by politicians who are apparently willing to place their own progress above the well-being of the citizens they serve. Consequently, evidence over time shows that we will all be poorer.

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