Castle News – Written by: Dr. Hossam Dajani
President Mahmoud Abbas has issued a presidential decree urging Mr. Appointing Hussein al-Sheikh as Secretary of the Executive Committee of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, which is the second highest position in the Executive Committee, and the words of President Abbas say: I nominate the Sheikh as my successor in case of any emergency after I reached a very old age.
From the point of view of observers, this decision means that Mr. Hussein al-Sheikh, the successor to President Mahmoud Abbas, is in the following positions: Chairman of the Executive Committee, President of the Palestinian Authority, Chairman of Fatah Movement and Commander-in-Chief of the Security Services. The question is, is this approach firstly acceptable to the Palestinian people, and the Central Committee of Fatah movement, secondly …? What is the connection between what happens with the postponement of the eighth conference …? What are the most prominent scenarios that could occur on the second day of the death of President Mahmoud Abbas – may God prolong his life -?
First, the possible position of our Palestinian people with regard to the possibility that Hussein Al-Sheikh will assume the position of head of the organization and the government
Most of the great Palestinian people accept that their president should only be elected, and accordingly I do not think anyone accepts that he is led by a president who comes to them through the prescriptions of a Palestinian, regional or international party not. . .? Most of the members of the Central Committee and the leaders of the security services say: I am worth more, and here begins a competitive battle that offers different scenarios that we will mention at the end of the article.
Second: The possibility of postponing the eighth conference with the arrangements that Hussein Al-Sheikh will accept the position of president
In my estimation, there is a fear of the Eighth Conference of the Fatah movement, and consequently it has been postponed twice, and may not be held until the arrangements that guarantee the inauguration of Hussein al-Sheikh for this position have been completed. – it’s an estimate it’s not based on any information – but it’s probably unless the opposite happens, because President Abbas fears a soft coup democratically, if the eighth conference of the Central Order is held, which is a boiling state in view of the decline in the popularity of Fatah and its indicators in the recent elections (local – doctors – Birzeit), and consequently it is likely that the conference will be postponed until after the results confirming the final arrangements are confirmed. associated with the status of Hussein al- Sheikh. Or the conference would be after Hussein al-Sheikh was appointed to the presidency, and in this case, Mr. Hussein with steps and fundamental reforms affecting our Palestinian people in general, the Fatah framework in particular, such as: Youth – combating corruption, etc …). Then he appeals to the eighth conference, which he says will guarantee that he will win the position of head of the movement.
Third: The most prominent scenarios for the second day of the death of President Mahmoud Abbas
After the completion of the funeral diplomacy, and the spread of an avalanche of sympathy and sympathy to our people inside and out, with the death of President Mahmoud Abbas and the mention of the most prominent political stations in his life, and with the end from day one, the following scenarios begin to emerge:
1. The scenario of resorting to the amended Constitution
It stipulates that the President of the Legislative Council, dr. Aziz Dweik of Hamas, has been detained for sixty days, and this is a major challenge for the international community, which supports the motives of the constitutional court’s decision to dissolve President Abbas’ decree. the Legislative Council, so that this scenario is not possible, and according to this scenario we will simulate The scene is as follows:
The official Palestinian media publishes a statement on the Executive Committee and in the presence of the Central Committee of Fatah movement which includes the following: In light of the Constitutional Court’s decision to dissolve the Legislative Council, everyone agreed to the position of President of the Palestinian Authority, and either the President of the Palestinian National Council, Rawhi Fattouh, or the President of the Constitutional Court, Muhammad Hajj Qasim, provided that presidential elections are held within sixty days. This scenario could destroy the ambitions and aspirations of President Abbas as well as the Fatah movement, as it is likely that the movement’s opponents (Hamas – left – the reform movement) will stand behind a candidate who is with the Fatah candidate. -competition movement. .
Hamas could cling to the presidency for a period of sixty days through a scenario represented by Aziz Dweik’s apology and the transfer of the post to First Vice President Ahmed Bahar. According to this scenario, Hamas is acting with legitimacy in making decisions.
2. The scenario of appointing Hussein Al Sheikh to lead the government and the organization
This is a likely scenario, and it is easiest to implement President Abbas’ directions in terms of the announcement by the official media that will lead the next phase in the face of the faltering elections and recourse to the amended Basic Law. The decision with the approval of the Executive and Central Committee of the Fatah movement is Hussein al-Sheikh.
This can be contained in the Central Council’s vote on the decision, and perhaps the Constitutional Court interprets its correctness and that it serves the higher national interests of the Palestinian people.
3. Chaos scenario
It is not far from the absence of the mind and the rise of muscles to resolve the scene in favor of a certain stream that possesses money and weapons, and rejects any of the scenarios and each stream has its orientations and reasons, but in the end we will be on a date with the void and chaos, which is an expensive scenario for everyone, including the Israeli occupation.
4. The popular giveaway scenario
Consequently, the masses of our people will come out to protect the constitution, and to demand free elections in all political institutions, and this can be met with oppression or acceptance, and remain the best case scenario, and that is the likely scenario for any of the previous scenarios, because the people’s silence and indifference is probably scenario 2 or 3.
Conclusion: So that we do not enter a new political abyss that will result in our people and our cause that could harm the Palestinian national project and social peace. I see that the best solution starts with the President while he is alive by working on one of two jobs, the first: an appeal to general and comprehensive elections.
Secondly, in the light of the dissolution of the Legislative Council, the Central Council called for a new change in the Constitution, according to which the Palestinian political system would become a parliamentary system, and all the powers of the president would be transferred. to the prime minister, and the president’s position would be retained as the honorary president of the Palestinian people until his transition to Paradise.
(The world of the fatherland).