Bank Audi’s weekly report: A stagnation in the exchange rate on the black market between a sour political climate and an inflow of expatriate money

With the exclusion of any positive break in the government crisis wall before the end of the presidential term next October, and in the light of the legislative challenges facing the current parliament with its fragmented reality to meet the requirements of the International Monetary Fund meet and urge international financial support to help Lebanon recover from its financial and economic depression, and with The continued pumping of the expatriate dollar during the summer tourist season. This week, Lebanese financial markets saw marginal movements in the dollar exchange rate on the black market, while the prices of the Lebanese Euro bonds remained at their lowest historical level, and the stock market recorded a fluctuation in prices, according to the weekly report from Bank Audi. In detail, the dollar exchange rate on the parallel market fluctuated between 29400 LBP. and 29450 LBP. On Friday, compared to 29,600 LBP-29,700 LBP. At the end of last week, amid a continuing drain on the Banque du Liban’s foreign exchange reserves while the country was caught in an avalanche of crises. In the Eurobond market, government debt bond prices remained at their lowest levels, which ranged between 5.875 and 6.0 cents on the dollar on Friday, compared to 6.0-6.25 cents on the dollar at the end of the previous week . As for the stock market, the Beirut stock exchange recorded stability in the price index amid shy trading volumes.

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In the money market: The cost of cash in pounds remained within 20% in the money market this week. The latest monetary statistics released by the Banque du Liban for the week ended 30 June 2022 showed that resident bank deposits recorded their first expansion since the end of May 2022 by around £ 595 billion. This increase is mainly due to the increase in deposits resident in pounds, by 627 billion pounds, amid an increase in demand deposits in pounds, by 743 billion pounds, and a decrease in savings deposits in pounds, by 116 billion pounds, while deposits are resident. in foreign currencies fell by 32 billion pounds (equivalent to 21 billion pounds). million at the official exchange rate of 1507.5 LBP). As a result, resident bank deposits in the first half of 2022 accumulated 3151 billion pounds of contraction, mainly due to the decrease in resident deposits in foreign currencies by 5413 billion pounds, while resident deposits in pounds increased by 2262 billion pounds. At the same time, the statistics for the first half of 2022 showed a decrease in the volume of cash in circulation by about 7 trillion pounds due to the effect of the Central Bank of Lebanon Circular no. 161 issued and the exceptional measures taken by the Central since the beginning of 2022, which authorized Lebanese banks to buy cash dollars from the Central Bank at the price of the Sayrafa platform at pounds owned by its customers without a specific ceiling.

In the Treasury bond market: The preliminary results of the tenders on 14 July 2022 showed subscriptions in the six-month category (with a return of 4.0%), the three-year category (with a return of 5.50%) and the seven year category (with a yield of 6.50%). On the other hand, the results of the tenders on 7 July 2022 showed subscriptions worth 32 billion pounds, which were from the entire share of the Banque du Liban and were distributed as follows: 21 billion pounds in the three-month category ( with a return of 3.50%), and £ 10 billion in the year category (with a return of 4.50%), and £ 53 million in the five-year category (with a return of 6.0%). On the other hand, claims of 100 billion pounds appeared, resulting in a weekly nominal deficit of 68 billion pounds.

In the foreign exchange market: Given the difficult economic and monetary conditions facing Lebanon and amid a stalemate in the formation of the government, and fears that the current parliament will not reach an agreement in order to issue urgent reform legislation not, which has been a cornerstone for Lebanon’s position on the recovery path has the dollar exchange rate in The black market moves in the region of 29 000 LBP. This week, it reached 29,400 LBP. 29450 LBP On Friday, compared to 29,600 LBP-29,700 LBP. The previous weekend, although the money spent continued to flow during the summer tourist season. At the same time, the Banque du Liban indicated that the dollar exchange rate on the Sayrafa platform is 25,400 LBP. Between 13 and 15 July 2022 as an average of the exchange rates of transactions executed by banks and exchange institutions on the platform.

In the stock market: The trading volume in the Beirut stock exchange was limited to $ 2.0 million during this week, which is limited to only three days due to the Eid al-Adha holiday, compared to the trading volume of 10.6 million in the previous week. In terms of prices, the price index rose by 0.1% this week. Of the five shares traded, two shares rose, while the prices of two other shares fell and the price of one share remained stable. In particular, the share prices of Solid “A” and “B” increased by 0.2% and 0.6% respectively to close at $ 62.20 and $ 63.0 respectively. In terms of bank shares, the shares of “Audi Ordinary Bank” fell by 4.7% to $ 1.41. Bank Audi’s deposit receipt rates fell 6.3% to $ 1.50. The prices of BLOM BANK deposit receipts remained stable at $ 2.50.

The Eurobonds market: With the horizon of forming a government and fears of continuing the government vacuum until the presidential election next October, and in the face of the great challenges facing Parliament with its disintegrated composition, the long-awaited reform legislation And to ensure urgent international support, the prices of Lebanese Euro bonds remained at their lowest levels, ranging between 5,875 and 6,. 0 cents per dollar, compared to 6.0-6.25 cents per dollar at the end of the previous week. At the cumulative level, sovereign bonds have recorded price contractions of $ 3.88 to $ 4.50 since the beginning of 2022. In this context, it is noteworthy that the World Bank “Bank of America” ​​in a recent report said that the value of collection Lebanese Euro bonds can vary between 10 and 15 cents per dollar in the case of an agreement with the IMF, while the effects will be uncollectible in the case of the stagnation scenario.

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