Why the current oil boom may be the last for Arab countries – Yalla Match

The Gulf states went through oil booms in the 1970s and 1980s, and then another boom in the early 2000s. But experts say changing attitudes to energy use mean such cycles may no longer be sustainable, and the Gulf states must be prepared.

“This is definitely the beginning of the end for oil wealth at this sustainable level,” said Karen Young, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

“Today’s boom is different in that it is more than just an oil crisis,” Young said. “This is a major shift in the fabric of how we meet global energy needs.”

The International Monetary Fund said Middle East energy exporters expect to earn $1.3 trillion in hydrocarbon revenue over four years as a result of the current boom. Experts have warned them not to waste it, arguing that Gulf countries should protect themselves against oil price fluctuations by exploiting windfall profits to diversify their economies away from their reliance on oil wealth.

During previous oil booms, the Gulf states were seen squandering their fortunes on wasteful and inefficient investments, building and arms buying sprees, as well as providing aid to citizens. That boom was followed by recessions when oil prices fell as countries continued to rely on hydrocarbons for their income.

“Construction projects are often started and then abandoned when the oil money runs out” because they have a lot to spend there is often not a lot of oversight and there has traditionally been a lot of corruption.”

According to Omar Al-Obaidli, director of research at the Bahrain-based Derasat research center, traditionally there has also been a strong focus on increases in public sector employment and in public sector salaries through bonuses or increases.

A World Bank report from May 2022 emphasized that the wealth gained by the Gulf states after the pandemic and after the Ukraine war should be invested in the bloc’s “economic and environmental transformation”.

The report said that the focus on investment in the energy transition is critical as many parts of the world accelerate the transition to renewable energy.

The Gulf states seem to be diversifying. Since the last oil boom ended in 2014, four of the six Gulf states have introduced a value-added tax, and the UAE has gone even further by introducing a corporate income tax. There is no income tax in any of the Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia is investing in non-oil sectors such as tourism, but experts have questioned the sector’s ability to offset oil revenues. The Kingdom earns almost one billion dollars a day from oil at current prices.

Gulf states have recoiled from the idea that hydrocarbons could be phased out as a primary source of energy as environmentally conscious nations move towards alternative sources. They say that oil plays a crucial role in the global economy and will continue to do so.

Critics object that it is in the interests of oil exporters to promote this narrative, but oil nations have pointed to rising demand for crude that has coincided with the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions around the world.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency said last week that demand for oil will grow sharply next year, driven by the resumption of work in China and global travel.

The United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s largest oil exporters, has warned that a very rapid transition away from hydrocarbons could cause an economic crisis.

“Policies aimed at plunging too soon into oil and gas, without suitable viable alternatives, are self-defeating,” Sultan Al Jaber, the Emirati special envoy for climate change, wrote in an opinion piece in August. “They will undermine energy security, undermine economic stability and leave less revenue to invest in the energy transition,” he added.

Young of the Middle East Institute said that even as economies move away from oil as an energy source, oil-based products such as petrochemicals and plastics will still be in demand.

However, experts say the Gulf states realize that even though demand for oil continues, such price increases may not occur again with the same degree or frequency.

“There is a palpable sense that this is a fleeting boom and that this may represent the last sustained rise in oil prices,” Al-Obaidli said. “Governments and people alike feel that this is an opportunity that should be fully exploited, rather than squandered by short-sighted decision-making.”

digestion

Iranian woman dies after falling into coma while in custody of morality police

Iran’s semi-official Etimad Online, citing her uncle, reported that a 22-year-old Iranian woman had died after being arrested by Iran’s morality police earlier this week. The killing of the woman sparked outrage across social media platforms, prompting reactions from local and Western officials.

  • backgroundMahsa Amini and her family, who had traveled from Iran’s Kurdistan region to visit relatives in the capital, Tehran, were stopped by a patrol of the Morality Police – a unit that enforces strict dress codes on women – on Tuesday evening. According to IranWire, human rights activists who spoke to the family said police arrested Amini and forced her into a police car. Tehran police said on Thursday that Amini had suffered a “heart attack”. Iranian officials said on Saturday that an autopsy had been performed, and the results would be released after an examination by experts.
  • why does it matter: The incident sparked global outrage, with many using the hashtag #MahsaAmini in English and Farsi on social media to protest Iran’s morality police and the assault women face in connection with the country’s strict hijab rules. It also comes on the heels of recent protests on social media in Tehran against the “National Hijab and Chastity Day”.

Erdogan wants Turkey to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he is targeting Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) membership for NATO member Turkey, Reuters reported, citing Turkish broadcaster NTV and other media on Saturday. He spoke to reporters after attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan. “Our relations with these countries will move to a completely different position with this step,” Erdogan said. When asked if he was aiming for membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, he said: “Of course that is the goal.”

  • backgroundTurkey is currently a dialogue partner of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an economic, political and security grouping whose members include China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
  • why does it matter: An entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization would bring Ankara closer to Russia and China at a time when the Ukraine war is polarizing world politics. NATO member Turkey maintained good relations with Russia during the war and refrained from joining its Western allies in punishing the country.

Photos show the Iranian leader at an event amid reports of deteriorating health

Photos and a video posted on Iranian government websites and state media show the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei sitting in a mosque in Tehran to attend the Arbaeen mourning ceremony, marking the end of a 40-day period of mourning for the murder of one of the prophets. Muhammad’s grandsons, a day after news came of the ayatollah’s deteriorating health.

  • background: The New York Times reported Friday that Khamenei canceled all public appearances last week after becoming “seriously ill” and under the care of a team of doctors. Citing four unidentified people familiar with his health, the New York Times said Khamenei was resting in bed after undergoing surgery for an intestinal obstruction last week.
  • why does it matterKhamenei has been Iran’s leader for the past three decades and is one of the longest-serving rulers in the Middle East. It remains unclear who may succeed the leader, but in the event of his death, it is expected that the Assembly of Experts will meet to discuss his successor.

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Morocco's Ines Laclaleche bogeys the seventh hole during the first day of the Aramco Team London Series on June 16, 2022 in St Albans, England.

Novice professional golfer Ines Laclaleche became the first Arab and first North African woman to win the European Women’s Championship when she won the Lacoste Women’s Open in France on Saturday.

The 24-year-old from Casablanca defeated English golfer Megan McClaren in a play-off on Saturday and said her victory at the French Open Women’s Championship would be something she would remember “for the rest of my life” as she celebrated her historic feat. victory. In Deauville next to her husband Ali, who also works in cans.

“It feels great,” said Laclaleche’s women’s website. “It’s great to hear that. I have no words to describe it.”

She added that “Morocco is doing a good job promoting golf” and that “a Moroccan victory in a major tour would be a big thing for the country and the Arab world in general.”

Laclaleche also said she is a big fan of Tunisian tennis star Anas Jabeur, who became the first African woman to play in a Grand Slam final when she reached Wimbledon and the US Open this year.

Written by Amy Lewis

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Environmental volunteers build a pyramid made of plastic waste collected from the Nile as part of an event to raise awareness of pollution in

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