Matthew Continent, a political researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, said most Americans know about Nov. 5, 2024, that they will elect a president. But they do not know, for example, who the two parties will nominate for the elections.
Trump will begin the race as if he were in office.
Continetti wrote in the National Review that US President Joe Biden says he intends to run again. But the reality may be different.
Biden is the oldest US president, and he will be over 80 in 2024, and his health and cognitive abilities may prevent him from launching another campaign. If that happens, Biden will be the first president since Lyndon Johnson not to seek a second term.
His replacement on the Democratic ticket will be a mystery. Americans also do not know who the Republicans will nominate. At the time of writing, Trump is widely expected to run. If he wins the election, he will be the second president to serve his country in two non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland, in the nineteenth century.
Nor do Americans know the circumstances that will govern the United States and the world in two years. Crime, illegal immigration, critical race theory, gender ideology in education and abortion can determine elections.
There could be a downturn, a financial crisis or both. And the war in Ukraine could expand to include NATO. China may also invade Taiwan. While North Korea is always a concern and war is a constant threat in the Middle East. But perhaps the worst results can be avoided.
“The most likely result is another Trump nomination followed by a Trump-Biden rematch.” https://t.co/9YiBMIlvLK
– Alaska GOP (@akgop) November 14, 2022
The economic situation may improve. But today Biden is weak, but there have been shifts in the past. Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama rose from terrible midterm elections to win a second term. They counted on the economic recovery and their own popularity.
But other presidents, including Trump, have not been so lucky. Will the 2024 Democratic nominee benefit from a similar combination of skill and luck?
Continuity notes the difficulty of removing incumbents from the White House, only four presidents have failed to win re-election in the past century. But Biden’s low popularity, his physical and mental conditions and the weakness of his party’s options put the Democrats in a difficult situation.
If Biden does not run again, his vice president, Kamala Harris, will be the front-runner for the nominations. But it’s a position she may not hold for long, as her approval rating is even lower than Biden’s, and his net favorability, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, is minus 8 percentage points, while hers is minus 15 percentage points.
According to the author, it sometimes seems that Biden chose Harris as vice president to send a message to America: No matter how little you like me, things could be worse.
— Daniel N. Gullotta 🇺🇦 (@DanielGullotta) November 12, 2022
Harris will almost certainly mount a challenge in the primary. Her potential challengers include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Betty Buttigieg, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Colorado Governor Jared Polis, and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Harris will benefit from her tenure and the inroads she has made among black voters. But her problem will be in the election campaign. She is very bad at it. The Democratic primaries will be bitter, noisy and unpredictable. In other words, it will look a lot like the Republican primary.
12 potential candidates
It is true that Trump will start the race as if he wants to take office. He will be the only candidate to win the Republican nomination, and he has won it before, as well as the presidency.
But he will also face opposition within the party, including from his former employees. At least 12 are considering participating, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Senators Ted Cruz, Rick Scott and Tim Scott, former New Chris Christie, Governor of Jersey, Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland, Chris Sununu, Governor of New Hampshire, and Christie Noem, Governor of South Dakota.
These nominations may not materialize if Trump enters the race. But others will come true. And if Trump doesn’t run, the Republican field could widen to include new contenders, such as Ohio Senator-elect Jay de Vance.
Trump will face distractions if he launches a third campaign, which could be his health, as he will be 78 years old on Election Day, the age Biden was when he entered the White House.
Quality of life is important, playing golf is more fun than chairmanship. The six investigations into Trump’s personal, professional and political life in two states and the District of Columbia could take up much of his time.
The writer assumes that Trump will actually run. He would start with a massive advantage in polls and fundraising.
At the time of writing, Trump led the Republican primary polls by 31 points. His political action committee, Save America, has raised more than $100 million. And his ability to attract media coverage is second to none.
The biggest threat to Trump’s candidacy will come from DeSantis, who pulled off an impressive re-election victory without Trump’s help, raising more than $200 million and trailing Trump in second place in the national polls. But a September poll for USA Today and Suffolk found DeSantis leading Trump among Florida Republican voters in the primary.
A recent ABC/Ipsos poll found that more Republicans want DeSantis to influence the direction of the Republican Party than Trump does.
DeSantis has the talent and resources to launch a national campaign. His best chance is to do well in New Hampshire and South Carolina to force Trump into a showdown in Florida. But success is not guaranteed.
One of the reasons for this is the high possibility that the Republican primaries will turn into a duplicate of the 2016 election, as the numerous nominations have split the anti-Trump vote. Additionally, DeSantis may have reached the peak of his success too early. Trump supporters would call him a servant of the dreaded Republican establishment.
Other observers, like journalist Megyn Kelly, say in a video that went viral that DeSantis can’t keep up with Trump’s star power, which “sucks all the energy out of every room, no matter what.”
I expected that a skilled politician like DeSantis would not be able to get through it. Trump posted the video clip on his social media platform and commented: “I agree.”
The author sees three scenarios in the primaries that include Trump and DeSantis running together. The first is that Trump defeats DeSantis and the others and easily wins the nomination. The second is for DeSantis to defeat Trump and win the nomination. But no one knows how Trump will react to a defeat.
As for the third scenario, it is more complex, as it is likely that Trump and DeSantis will split the pro-Trump vote in 2024, just as Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Kasich split the anti-Trump vote in 2016 .
If this is true, then there is a chance that Trump and DeSantis will lose the majority. This impasse could provide room for a third candidate who would have to appeal to some Trump voters and mistrustful parts of the Republican coalition. The third scenario may be unlikely. But it gives hope to Glenn Youngkin, for example.
The most likely possibility is another Trump nomination, followed by a repeated confrontation with Biden. But probably doesn’t mean sure.
There are sure to be surprises on the way. The saying goes that Republicans always choose their candidate, but only after they have humiliated him. Since Trump was announced as a candidate for the presidency on June 16, 2015, American politics has been very strange. And it’s going to get even weirder.