The Assad-Erdogan-Putin summit is not tomorrow

After paving the way through the last period and expressly declaring on the 23rd of last month that he was ready to meet Assad, on the 15th Erdogan announced his proposal to hold a tripartite summit with Putin and Assad. Erdogan is proposing an integrated roadmap for the summit as he paves the way for a meeting between the intelligence officials of the two countries, followed by a meeting between the foreign ministers and then the defense ministers. The Summit comes at the top of these meetings. The situation of the Syrian refugees may have been a stressor on him on the eve of the election, as he is the trump card in the hands of the opposition, but Erdogan’s determination and decisiveness in taking difficult decisions cannot be denied, and he was the one who conditioned the fall of Assad to settle relations with Syria. The fate of the war against the PKK was removed from the proposal by Erdogan and he decided to follow it, but the other questions raised by the proposal are almost countless, the most important of which is the question of the fate of the Syrian opposition, especially those linked to Turkey, and with it the whole Syrian war, and the fate of the displaced Syrians, and not only in Turkey, and it does not end About the fate of the Kurds in Syria, their autonomy and their relationship with the Assad regime.

It is clear from the talks of the Syrian and Turkish parties before Erdogan announced that the summit will not be held before the end of the Turkish presidential elections next year, and the scope of the agenda was predicted by a Russian expert from Mid – East affairs in a video tape published by Novosti Agency. He summarized it in three circles: internal, regional and external.

Orientalist Kirill Semyonov was quoted by the Kremlin newspaper VZ as assessing “the future of the Turkey-Russia-Syria summit”. The orientalist says that the most important thing about the possible summit is that Turkey has changed its position and is ready for dialogue with Syria. Initially, Ankara refused dialogue with Damascus before the elections were held in Turkey, and it is not yet clear how Damascus will accept this change. It is important to know the possible agenda, and whether it will be limited to the Kurdish issue in the context of preventing a Turkish ground operation, or whether it will include all outstanding problems between the two countries. It is also important to know whether the summit will adopt a permanent format, or whether it will be held only once. The optimal agenda for the dialogue agenda is one that immediately includes all the problems that have accumulated between the parties in recent years, so that other regional players cannot be involved in the settlement of disputes between them.

The orientalist believes that it is important for Ankara to take the initiative to express the desire to meet. And he emphasizes that Damascus’s rejection of the proposal by saying that negotiations will begin in Turkey after the election will seriously undermine Syria’s image. Moreover, if Assad issues any ultimatums, Turkey will not accept them under any circumstances and will act according to the plan already in place. And Damascus does not have the power to force Turkey out of Syrian territory.

He ignores the easterner who is totally supportive of what Assad has done and is still doing to his people, and the 3.7 million refugees he caused Erdogan (according to that Nonovosti expert), and equates him with others who Erdogan normalized relations, saying that normalization with Syria is within Turkey’s policy of “zero problems with the neighborhood”. “. Normalization has already taken place with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt, and even with Israel and Armenia. He points out that Russia is now “very interested” in cooperation between Turkey and Syria, because it has foreign missions that it “is not available make to monitor every step of Assad and Erdogan.” He believes that Erdogan and Assad realize that they will not be able to reach an agreement without the participation of Russia. And Moscow will explore the corners of the desires of each of the two parties rounding off, “we must be a mediator who can turn the corners and settle the relations of states.”

Commentary has not been plentiful on Erdogan’s initiative, or “Erdogan’s road map for reconciliation with Assad” as Putin’s media calls it, and what is available is “Russia will restore neighborly relations with Turkey and Syria” to the aforementioned Kremlin newspaper, of which most belong to the Kremlin’s propaganda and in its media sites And it’s not worth stopping.

We stopped by the blog of an activist whose name has not been published, who posted it on the LiveJournal blog site on the 17th of this month. The author refers to Erdogan’s statement about the unification of the Turkish and Russian intelligence services, and says that these efforts have been made during the last two months, and at the highest levels, “but they have not yielded anything.”

The blogger appears to be sober and follows the Syrian file well, pointing out that last August Erdogan stated that Ankara is not trying to remove Assad from power. By his words at the time, he wanted to indicate that he had abandoned his policy of supporting the uprising against Assad during the last ten years. And he refers to a leak this month from sources close to the Turkish presidential office who say that rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus (and with other Arab capitals) will only begin after the elections next year, and no real dynamic should be expected in this not. direction.

The blogger concludes from the leak that Erdogan’s statement in this case must be evaluated as propaganda on the domestic front. The internal pressure on Ankara is intensifying, calling for the normalization of relations with Damascus. The Turkish opposition’s calls for reconciliation between Turkey and Syria are intensifying every day, as Turkish society grows more hostile towards the nearly 4 million Syrian refugees in Turkey.

After the blogger referred to the negotiations that the Americans are conducting with Syrian officials to release the American journalist Austin Tice, he says that Damascus, in turn, is trying to renew cooperation with Ankara, but many Turks believe that the Syrian government’s conditions for negotiations. not only with Turkey, but also with the United States and the League of Nations. Arabic, “not realistic.”

However, according to the blogger, one of the main obstacles within the framework of the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement, next to the personal relations between Erdogan and Assad, remains the Kurdish factor. And the Turkish president focused on that in his statement – the initiative, saying that Turkey will not tolerate the presence of Syrian Kurdish fighters along the Turkish borders. It is not entirely clear why the Turkish president is so concerned about the sale of Syrian oil by the Kurds, but his departure makes it clear that cheap Syrian oil supplies to Turkey, as well as Iraqi Kurdish oil supplies, have dried up.

After talking at length about the Kurds, especially about the PKK and the Turkish “claw-sword” operation against them in northern Syria and Iraq, the blogger says that this process is not over yet, but at a changing pace in the north will continue. of the two countries until the time comes for a military attack across their borders. The terrorist act in Istanbul was not a sufficient motive for such an attack, which in any circumstances could have started after the end of Operation “Sword of Claw”.

However, the terrorist bombing in Istanbul prompted Turkey to reveal its new combat strategy earlier than planned, and the current campaign paves the way for future ground operations. He says that he dares and accepts that the set of measures and steps taken in the context of the anti-Kurdish operations will be exactly the priorities and determinants of this strategy.

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